Making the Leap

If you’ve ever heard Guy Kawasaki speak, you might be familiar with his famous parable about the ice industry—a once-thriving business sector that was transformed by a series of technological innovations. Despite these advances, no company successfully transitioned from one stage of innovation to the next.

The lesson remains as relevant today as it was in the early 1900s: Adapt or become irrelevant.

A Brief History of Ice

Long before freezers and refrigerators, ice was essential for food preservation. From this necessity, an industry emerged.

• Ice 1.0: Workers cut blocks from frozen lakes and delivered them to homes. The business was physically demanding, seasonal, and geographically limited.
• Ice 2.0: The rise of ice factories eliminated the need for lake harvesting, allowing year-round production in any climate. Factory-made ice became the standard.
• Ice 3.0: The invention of the refrigerator rendered ice factories—and home ice delivery—obsolete.

At each stage of innovation, the companies that dominated the previous era failed to transition to the next. Lake ice companies did not evolve into ice factories. Ice factories did not transition into refrigeration. Established businesses clung to their existing models until they were no longer viable. Sound familiar?

The Business of Survival

Guy Kawasaki refers to this as “jumping the curve”—a concept that goes beyond incremental improvements. Companies must anticipate and embrace major shifts rather than merely refine existing products or services.

Companies within the ice industry failed to make the leaps. And it is far from the only example.

Industries Facing the Same Challenge Today

The same pattern continues across industries. Companies that fail to evolve lose ground—or disappear entirely.

• Retail: Amazon transformed shopping habits by delivering ultra-convenience, and by 2025, global e-commerce sales are projected to exceed $6.5 trillion (Statista). Many traditional retailers have struggled to keep pace.
• Transportation: Uber and Lyft disrupted the taxi industry. Meanwhile, Tesla and Rivian are accelerating the transition to electric vehicles, forcing legacy automakers to rethink their strategies.
• Entertainment: Netflix upended Blockbuster and reshaped media consumption. Now, platforms like AppleTV, Disney+, and YouTubeare disrupting Netflix’s dominance. The disruptors themselves are never safe for long.
• Hospitality: Airbnb redefined lodging, turning underutilized spaces into a multibillion-dollar market. By 2024, its market cap had reached $90 billion, surpassing many legacy hotel chains.
• Technology: No industry reinvents itself more rapidly. In the early internet era, Yahoo was dominant. Then came Google, social media, smartphones, and cloud computing. Now, AI is transforming business at an even faster pace, with companies like OpenAI and latecomer DeepSeek disrupting the next wave of change.

This is not just disruption—it is reinvention. Some companies adapt. Many do not.

The Accelerating Pace of Change

The speed of disruption today is unprecedented.

Artificial intelligence, automation, blockchain, and climate technology are reshaping industries at a rapid pace. A 2023 McKinsey & Company report found that companies investing in AI see productivity gains of 20-30%, yet most businesses remain in the early stages of adoption.

At the same time, consumer expectations are evolving just as quickly.

• 63% of consumers prefer brands that align with their personal values (Deloitte).
• Through this market evolution, they expect sustainability, ethical business practices, and personalized experiences. 

Make no mistake—this audience’s values alignment is market disruption, too. Companies that fail to meet these expectations risk becoming irrelevant, no matter how dominant they once were.

Critical Questions for Business Leaders

To remain competitive, companies must move beyond incremental change and embrace bold transformation. Consider the following:

1. Are you innovating or simply improving upon what already exists?
2. Are you aligned with customer values or relying on outdated assumptions?
3. Are competitors moving ahead of you? What signals might you be ignoring?
4. Is your brand story still relevant? Does it clearly communicate value in today’s market?

Adaptation Is a Choice

The story of ice is not unique, nor is it inevitable for companies that recognize the need for change. Businesses that embrace innovation, anticipate trends, and take bold steps forward do more than survive—they lead.

The key is acting before the foundation beneath you disappears.

As a brand, culture, and strategy advisor, I help companies evolve—whether through innovation, brand reinvention, or bold market shifts. Let’s ensure your business stays ahead of the curve.